Vis Lupi Est Grex

Initial Thoughts on POTASUN

As we begin this election journey, just as with any election, there are certain knowns. By far the most important election this cycle will be the decision that students will make in regards to Eli Reilly. This election is not only about who will be the next President of the Associated Students, it’s about whether or not Eli has done a good job over the last year. This election is a referendum on Mr. Reilly. As such, I’ll start our with analysis of our current Commander-in-Student.

Mr. Reilly starts out this election with an undeniable advantage. He has name recognition, and he has a real platform for getting to voters, i.e. the budget rallies and he’s an incumbent. As most people who know Mr. Reilly know, you either love him or hate him, there really isn’t much gray. Last year’s election was so close, 11 votes, that he didn’t come into office with a real mandate. Instead, he started out his term with a legal battle. Mr. Reilly made many promises in his last election, most notably, the 24-hour campus idea. Shortly after entering office he learned quite quickly that with the looming budget problems, keeping buildings open longer wasn’t going to be possible. Instead he focused on his other major campaign promise, making homecoming great. With the creation of the Department of Homecoming during the 75th Senate, he was able to allocate unprecedented funds to this new entity. And because of this, we had an amazing Homecoming. It’s debatable whether or not Eli can really take credit for this, while he did submit the budget, it was really Brita Muller who put it all into place, along with other student leaders like Lindsey Kern.

As pretty much anyone that’s met Eli this year knows, he’s been running for reelection since they day he took office. He made good on a number of campaign promises with his sights set for 2009. He also made sure to kiss plenty of ass with other student leaders, including club leaders. However he made a few very key mistakes, he screwed Carmen Gilbert, his opponent in the 2008 election, out of the position of Director of Clubs and Organizations. Shortly after the election, I believe the night after; he let it be known to her that if she wanted C&O, she could have it. She submitted her application and to the surprise of many ASUN followers, he appointed Jason Entsminger, a former club commissioner that no one liked or respected to the spot. Many people speculate that the only reason Jason got the job was because Sarah Ragsdale and Maria Urbina forced Eli into giving it to him. Jason kissed up to Maria and Sarah throughout the entire year, and when Carmen “turned her back” on Sarah during her impeachment trial, Sarah and Maria both turned their support to Eli, out of spite for Carmen. This was Eli’s first and probably greatest mistake, he made a promise he didn’t intend on keeping to a fellow student. He made an enemy out of someone who had won only 11 less votes than him in a campus wide election.

Eli has many advantages in this election, and I won’t go through them all, but the few major ones are: he’s the incumbent, he’s a good public speaker, he has no conscience about taking credit for other people’s ideas, and he knows plenty of sorority girls.

On the other side of the table we have Mr. Michael Cabrera, Mr. Reilly’s current Vice President. Michael has done many things for this campus; he’s been a student leader for over 4 years now. Starting out as a programmer in Flipside, he went on to be a Senator for the College of Liberal arts, then he successfully ran for Vice President last year. Michael starts out this campaign at a distinct disadvantage. While unlike Mr. Reilly, most people that meet Michael, end up liking him, he’s a very soft-spoken person but very likable. This can be both a plus and a minus for him, he doesn’t have very many enemies on campus, unlike Eli, but he’s also not as well known.

Mr. Cabrera’s major problem throughout this campaign will be how does he separate himself from Eli. How does he show that the things he did this past year were initiated by him, instead of directed by Eli? How does he say, “Eli hasn’t done enough with the budget cuts” without also saying that he hasn’t either? It’s almost impossible for a VP to win against an incumbent President, because they are so closely linked. While most of Michael’s supporters would take offense at being closely linked with Eli, it’s hard to separate them.

For Mr. Cabrera to win this election he has to get more name-recognition. He will have to meet everyone possible on campus. Both Mr. Reilly and Mr. Cabrera are excellent campaigners, so it should be an interesting election for the students. Last semester Eli was seen standing outside the library shaking hands for two straight days. Most observers would say that he was there for over 12 hours both days, obviously missing classes. After getting fewer votes than Carmen in the Primary, Mr. Reilly knew that if he were going to win he would have to meet as many people as possible. I’m sure it’s a lesson that he didn’t forget and I wouldn’t be surprised if he will be outside shaking hands the entire week before the general election.

As of right now, with almost no campaigning, I would put this election at a generous:

Reilly – 65%

Cabrera – 35%

I’m sure in the next month these numbers will change, but a true political observer cannot discount the incumbent advantage, mixed with the very extroverted personality of Mr. Reilly. As we said in the first post, we are not endorsing a candidate, as the political winds change, so too will our prediction.

Posted by Wolfie at 7:48 PM

Labels: Elections